A Combined Approach of the Earned Value Management and the Risk Management for Estimating Final Results of Projects in Fuzzy Environment

Akbar Alam Tabriz, Mojtaba Farrokh, Gholamhosein Mosalmani Nooshabadi, Hassan Hosseini Nia

Abstract


In spite of the abilities of earned value management technique (EVM) in evaluating the projects’ cost and time performance, it is not able to estimate the projects’ future performance. In fact, the earned value management estimates the project future performance merely based on its past and does not consider the environmental circumstances change or other elements which effect on the future performance of the project. Unlike the earned value management, the risk management technique looks to the farther horizons and deals with the evaluation of the project performance by recognizing the opportunities and threats. In this paper we intend to present the risk ratio in combination with the earned value management current indices for better forecasting of the projects’ future performance using the risk management technique. These ratios and indices are determined under real-life and uncertain conditions using the fuzzy approach.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/bms.v4i1.3906

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