Simulation-based Projections of Crop Management and Gross Margin Variance in Contrasting Regions of Southwest Germany

Abstract

Crop simulation is a modern tool used to mimic ordinary and extraordinary agriculture systems. Under the premise of continuing foreseeable climatic shift we combine adaptive field-level management decisions with their effects on crop performance. Price projections are used to examine yield and price effects on gross margins of the predominant crops in two specific regions of Southwest Germany into the coming decades. After calibration and validation to historic records, simulated future weather is used to explore how farmer behavior and performance of wheat, barley, rapeseed and maize could develop under anticipated global change. This development is examined based on a comparison of historic and projected gross margin variance. Simulations indicate that when yield levels increase, the relative variability of gross margins may decline in spite of some increasing variability of yields. The coefficient of variance of gross margins decreases even more due to the independence of price and yield fluctuations. This shows how the effects of global change on yields could be offset by economic conditions.