Water Transmission Protocols and Sustainable Development in Face of Climate Change. Case study: Urban water supply in Dez to Qomrood Water Transmission Project, Iran

Abstract

Central area of Iran is located in a dry- semi dry district suffering from shortage of fresh water. The water shortage has been the most important factor threatening sustainable development in this region and the growing rate of population exacerbates this critical condition. Several inter-basin water transfer projects have been considered to overcome this difficulty such as under construction Dez to Qomrood water transmission project. Three water allocation protocols have been considered in this project (Proportional Allocation (PA), Fix Upstream allocation (FU), and Fix Downstream allocation (FD)). This paper analyses transmission protocols to minimize the shortage risk of urban water shortage by considering the major goals of project in other categories as like as agriculture and hydroelectricity. Climate change effects have been forecasted via a wide range of GCMs (Global Circulation Model) to predict the change of available water resources in the basin's area for different climate scenarios in 2050. Two different scenarios have been used to cover the uncertainty of growing rate of population. In the next step, a water allocation model has been used to forecast results of each transmission protocol, climate scenario and population combination.  As the final result in the first round of sustainability assessment, it can be inferred that Fix Downstream allocation (FD) protocol would be the best choice supplying more population especially with urban water for a fix cost and also is the most adjusted protocol with the probable future condition.