Interest Rate Liberalization and Credit to Private Sector in Nigeria: ARDL-Cointegration Approach

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between interest rate liberalization and credit to private sector in Nigeria, using annual time series data spanning from 1986 to 2016. The study employed ARDL (p,q) model as suggested by Pesaran and Shin (1997) to analyzed the data. The study commenced with the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the results reveal that all the variables were integrated at order I (1). While the result of the estimated coefficient reveals that interest rate with the first lag was positive and statistically insignificant. And that a percent increase will lead to a 0.087 percent increase in the dependent variable (interest rate). In the same vain Inflation rate has a negative influence on interest rate and was not statistically significant. A percentage change in inflation will lead to 0.08 percent decrease in interest rate.The coefficient of determination (R² = 0.78) of the estimated model ARDL(1,2,4,1) shows that about 78 percent of the systematic variation in interest rate(INT) is totally explained and well accounted for by the independent variables. This implies that the ARDL (1, 2, 4, 1) model is of goodness of fit and is quite adequate. Base on the findings the study recommends amongst others that monetary authority should pursue interest rate liberalization policies so as to enhance credit to private sector growth that would further engender economic growth and development in Nigeria.