Macro-Economic Variables and Stock Prices: Empirical Evidence From Sri Lanka

Abstract

Economic strength in a country could be measured by macroeconomics variables. Inflation, interest rate, unemployment rate and GDP Deflator are some macroeconomics variables that show economic condition in Sri Lanka. The impact of macro-economic variables on share prices is uncontrollable. This study investigates the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock prices in Sri Lankan stock market using yearly time series data for the period from 1990 to 2017. The Ordinary Least Square regression was carried out using four macroeconomic variables for stock prices. The results shows that the higher R Square value (72.4911) which justifies higher explanatory power of macroeconomic variables in explaining stock prices. Consistent with similar results of the developed as well as emerging market studies, interest rate and inflation rate and unemployment rate react mainly negatively to stock prices in the Colombo Stock Exchange. These findings hold practical implications for policy makers, stock market regulators, investors and stock market analysts.