Digital Technology, Green Fiscal and Tax Policies, and the Green Transformation of Traditional Manufacturing

Abstract

Based on Chinese provincial panel data from 2011 to 2022, this paper explores the effects and mechanisms of digital technology and green fiscal and tax policies on the green transformation of traditional manufacturing. The research shows that digital technology has a significant enabling effect on the green transformation of traditional manufacturing. As regulatory instruments, green fiscal and tax policies significantly strengthen this enabling effect through the "compensation effect" and "cost effect" mechanisms respectively. However, the policy nesting of the two creates institutional friction, resulting in partial efficiency loss. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the enabling effect of digital technology exhibits structural differences across different strategic regions and policy contexts. Extended analysis reveals that the enabling process of digital technology has "network effects" and threshold characteristics, with technology lock-in occurring at high quantiles, and the marginal effect of green fiscal policy showing a diminishing trend. Accordingly, this paper proposes building a full-chain digital empowerment foundation, implementing quantile-based governance of green fiscal and tax policies, promoting gradient regional ecological penetration, and applying targeted policies to break through transformation bottlenecks.