How Do Time, Space, and Interest Shape Historical and Geographical Book Borrowing? Exploring the Moderating Effect of Renewal Intention and Gender

Abstract

This study examined the borrowing patterns of historical and geographical books (category K) at Nanjing Normal University between 2016 and 2024, using a dataset of 46,446 books, 20,463 readers, and 153,303 total borrowings. Data were segmented into three periods (2016–2018, 2019–2021, 2022–2024) to analyze behavioral changes, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with varimax rotation identified four core factors (time-space-interest: TSI; interest-only: I; space-interest: SI; time-space: TS) across periods, while moderated regression explored their impact on LogTotal (log-transformed total borrowings), with period-specific moderators (Gender for 2016–2018; Renewal for 2019–2021/2022–2024). Results showed dynamic factor evolution: a single TSI factor dominated pre-pandemic (2016–2018); 2019–2021 saw fragmentation into TSI, I, and SI (due to pandemic access constraints); 2022–2024 stabilized into TSI, TS, and I. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) confirmed moderate-to-strong factor correlations. Gender amplified F1’s impact on LogTotal (stronger for females) pre-pandemic, while Renewal weakened this association post-pandemic. Thematic analysis validated high demand for late imperial Chinese history (Ming/Qing) and archaeological research. This study identifies the pandemic as a key turning point, shifting borrowing determinants from demographic traits (Gender) to adaptive preferences (Renewal), offering insights for library resource allocation and service optimization.