Effect of Volatility Changes on Emerging Stock Markets: The Case of Jordan

Abstract

The Middle East financial markets have experienced several unexpected volatility shifts during the last two decades had recorded a serious impact on these markets and caused a financial turmoil that has elevated the uncertainties in the region. In view of this, more empirical findings should be learned and documented for future benefits. As one of the affected countries, Jordan was chosen as a case to provide empirical insight on the matter. This paper analyzed the behavior of Jordan’s stock market (Amman Stock Exchange, ASE) during the intervals of high uncertainty. It highlighted the impact of volatility on this market in terms of its efficiency and returns, during 2004-2012 periods, by utilizing the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm, GARCH and GARCH-M models. Sudden changes in volatility seem to arise from the evolution of emerging stock markets, exchange rate policy changes and financial crises. Evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, the persistence of volatility is reduced significantly in every series. Research results provided significant empirical evidence for positive risk-return relationship in the stock exchange. Moreover, this study also found that the stock market, across all sectors, was more sensitive to global news events as compared to the local events. The asymmetrical responses to good and bad news were also an important characteristic of the ASE market behavior.