Choosing Between Past and the Future: A Survey-Based Analysis of Voter Intention and Choice in Ghana’s 2024 Presidential Election

Abstract

The 2024 Ghanaian presidential election presents a critical juncture for voters as they weigh past governance performance against future policy promises. The study aims to contribute to the broader discourse on democratic accountability, voter psychology, and electoral dynamics in emerging African democracies. It examines voter intentions and choices through a survey-based analysis, exploring the factors influencing electoral decisions, such as retrospective evaluations of incumbent performance, prospective assessments of opposition candidates, and socioeconomic considerations. Using this approach, the study investigates whether Ghanaian voters would prioritise past experiences (performance-based voting) or future expectations (policy-based voting) in their electoral behaviour in the 2024 presidential election. Ghana’s 2024 presidential election presents a critical test of democratic decision-making, as voters weigh retrospective evaluations of past governance against prospective assessments of future policy directions. This study employs a nationally representative survey (N=600) to analyse voter intentions and choices. The results show voters prioritised past performance, particularly in economic management. The findings suggest that electoral success in Ghana’s competitive democracy requires balancing accountability for past governance with credible future policy alternatives.