Asymmetric Effect in the Relationship between Oil Prices and Activity: An Estimate of the VECM Model for Eight Emerging Countries

Abstract

In this study, we attempt to study the impact of oil shocks on the economic activity of eight emerging countries with different importing and exporting profiles, targeting and non-targeting inflation and thus verify the hypothesis of non-linearity. To do this, we used the VECM methodology. In addition to oil prices (the linear variation and its volatility, positive and negative movements in prices), we introduced the interest rate and industrial production as a proxy variable of the activity. The result shows that the economies of these countries are generally more sensitive to net increases in oil prices than to their volatility. Thus, the asymmetrical impact is clearly proven in the results especially in the long run. If the rise in oil prices negatively affects production, the decline does not favor its reshuffle. Indeed, if increases in oil prices reduce economic growth, their declines have no expansionary effect. In addition, the distinction between exporting and importing countries is not obvious. Furthermore, the addition of interest rates indicates that the first prefigurations indicate a tightening of interest rates by the central banks of the target and non-target countries selected in our study.