Spatial Patterns of Cereal Imports and Food Security in Africa: A Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

This research analyzes the relationship between international trade fragmentation and food security in Africa, focusing on cereal imports between 2010 and 2021. Using a gravity model, it examines African countries' trade with major global exporters, including France, Germany, the United States, China, Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine. The findings reveal that location, economic status, and institutional factors influence the availability and stability of cereal imports. Geographical distance, trade blocs, and economic capacity are significant determinants of trade volumes, while regional integration plays a crucial role in diversifying food supply sources. However, reliance on a limited number of suppliers makes African food systems vulnerable to political and economic crises. The United States, Russia, and Ukraine exert a significant influence on African cereal imports, complicating horizontal trade relations and threatening food security during global disruptions. The study recommends strengthening intra-African cooperation, improving trade infrastructure, and enhancing local production capacities to ensure a stable food supply and mitigate risks associated with an increasingly fragmented and uncertain global trade system.