Is There Any Meaningful Ratchet Effect in the Process of Currency Substitution? Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Currency substitution is an important phenomenon that has emerged with the liberalization of economies. In the Turkish economy, the studies about the currency substitution have gained momentum as a result of the extreme depreciation of the domestic currency in early 2000s. Switching to the flexible exchange rate system practice after the 2000-2001 crisis and putting into implement the inflation targeting strategy since 2005 have significantly reduced the currency substitution rate. Since 2014, the depreciation of domestic currency has made the currency substitution phenomenon a current issue again. This study analyses the main determinants of currency substitution phenomenon by considering the demand for money in the context of Turkey. Developed empirical model is estimated by using ARDL methodology for 2003-2016 periods by using monthly data obtained from Turkish economy. Estimation results indicate that interest rate differential is an important variable in the process of currency substitution in Turkey. Besides, estimation results also support the existence of a strong ratchet effect in the allocation of deposits between local and foreign currencies. These results together show that strong policies with higher credibility should be pursued with a longer period of time to make reverse currency substitution in effect and to assure economic units to turn back local currency denominated deposits.