A Comparative Analysis of Adjustment of Nigerian Selected Macro Economic Variables to Deregulated Exchange Rate System

Abstract

This study is a comparative analysis of how Nigerian macro economic variables of Balance of Payment and Real Sector performance (surrogated by Real Gross Domestic Product) reacted to exchange rate deregulation in Nigeria. One of the reasons why countries deregulate their exchange rate is to avail themselves the benefits of international trade, and the international trade transaction of every nation is depicted in its balance of payment position. In order to ascertain the significance of Naira deregulated exchange rate on the selected variables, a pre and post deregulation analyses were carried out using Paired Sample T Test staring from 1960 to 1985 as pre deregulation period and 1986 to 2011 as post deregulation period. The result revealed that both Balance of Payment and Real Sector Performance reacted significantly to exchange rate deregulation. While the influence of deregulation of exchange rate on Balance of Payment was negative, it showed a positive influence on Real Sector performance. The researchers concluded that deregulation of exchange rate did not increase the Nigerian general export, but oil export only, which is also an indication that Nigerian domestic industries did not contribute significantly to the country’s export level. We recommend that the monetary authority can consider placing a crawling peg on Naira exchange rate level in order to regulate the level of currency depreciation; this will reduce the cost of production for the domestic industries as most of their raw materials are imported. Again the export ability of the Nigerian domestic industries can be enhanced by granting them export incentives such as free international packaging and external credit guarantee.